Injuries, benefit and risk, SIDS

Reported vaccine injuries over time

This section shows how many suspected vaccine reactions were reported for young children in the US each year, how many vaccine doses were on the schedule at the time, and how many injury claims were paid in the US and UK. A report is not proof that a vaccine caused the problem; see the box below.

Read this first: what these numbers can and cannot show

Anyone can report. The VAERS data guide reports that "A report to VAERS generally does not prove that the identified vaccine(s) caused the adverse event described. It only confirms that the reported event occurred sometime after vaccine was given." source
Under-reporting. The same guide reports that VAERS "receives reports for only a small fraction of actual adverse events" and that serious events soon after vaccination are "probably more likely to be reported" even if coincidental source. A 2010 Harvard Pilgrim report for the US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) states that "fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported" source. That line is background in the report; the project did not measure it.
Coincidence at this age. The guide reports that babies are vaccinated mostly at 2-6 months, when they are "at greatest risk" of fever, seizures and SIDS, so "Some infants will experience these medical events shortly after a vaccination by coincidence." source
Counting changes. Since May 2025 the public VAERS data also include "secondary reports" (an extra report from a new source about the same child, vaccine and dose); CDC says these "do not represent additional reports of adverse events" source. So 2025 is not directly comparable with earlier years.
Reports change over time. Counts are by the year the report was received, as of 25 September 2026, US and territories only. Reporting depends on awareness and publicity.

US: VAERS reports for babies under 1, per 100,000 births

199015.1 (25 disease doses)

199160.6 (25 disease doses)

199258.2 (25 disease doses)

199355.3 (25 disease doses)

199464.2 (34 disease doses)

199560.4 (34 disease doses)

199651.5 (34 disease doses)

199739.0 (34 disease doses)

199828.2 (34 disease doses)

199936.3 (34 disease doses)

200034.9 (35 disease doses)

200145.2 (35 disease doses)

200241.0 (35 disease doses)

200335.6 (35 disease doses)

200435.9 (35 disease doses)

200534.9 (35 disease doses)

200640.9 (35 disease doses)

200759.4 (35 disease doses)

200859.8 (35 disease doses)

200945.1 (35 disease doses)

201046.4 (50 disease doses)

201145.5 (50 disease doses)

201244.0 (50 disease doses)

201340.6 (50 disease doses)

201447.3 (50 disease doses)

201553.5 (50 disease doses)

201648.6 (50 disease doses)

201750.4 (50 disease doses)

201843.9 (50 disease doses)

201943.4 (50 disease doses)

202036.8 (50 disease doses)

202138.6 (50 disease doses)

202243.0 (50 disease doses)

202348.5 (50 disease doses)

202449.1 (50 disease doses)

Guide's own arithmetic: reports received in the year (any vaccine except COVID-19, babies under 1) divided by US births that year, times 100,000. Age 1-2 uses the births of the two previous years as an approximate denominator. Disease doses: the US schedule in force that year, from the 'How the schedule has changed' section (each disease a vaccine covers counts as one dose; flu and COVID-19 not counted). Reports: CDC WONDER VAERS. Births: births 1986-2005 2006-09 2010-20 2021-22 2023-24.

Year report received	US disease doses on the schedule (no flu/COVID)	Reports, babies under 1 (not COVID vaccine)	Per 100,000 births	Of which serious	Serious per 100,000 births	Death reports, under 1	Reports, age 1-2 (not COVID vaccine)	Age 1-2 per 100,000 children (approx.)	COVID-19 vaccine reports, age 0-2 (separate)
1990	25 (1989 schedule)	629	15.1	153	3.7	49	247	3.1	0
1995	34 (1994 schedule)	2,355	60.4	468	12.0	97	1,552	19.5	0
2000	35 (2000 schedule)	1,418	34.9	322	7.9	81	2,767	35.0	0
2005	35 (2000 schedule)	1,445	34.9	310	7.5	68	2,729	33.3	0
2010	50 (2010 schedule)	1,856	46.4	319	8.0	47	2,834	33.8	0
2015	50 (2010 schedule)	2,127	53.5	257	6.5	39	2,412	30.5	0
2019	50 (2010 schedule)	1,626	43.4	260	6.9	33	2,106	27.5	0
2020	50 (2020 schedule)	1,331	36.8	152	4.2	30	1,558	20.7	5
2021	50 (2020 schedule)	1,416	38.6	131	3.6	23	1,583	21.5	261
2022	50 (2020 schedule)	1,577	43.0	89	2.4	17	1,781	24.5	1,383
2023	50 (2020 schedule)	1,743	48.5	119	3.3	20	2,101	28.7	1,929
2024	50 (2020 schedule)	1,782	49.1	131	3.6	27	2,032	28.0	530
2025	50 (2025 schedule)	1,557	n/a	162	n/a	16	1,775	24.6	204

Every year, 1990-2025

Year report received	US disease doses on the schedule (no flu/COVID)	Reports, babies under 1 (not COVID vaccine)	Per 100,000 births	Of which serious	Serious per 100,000 births	Death reports, under 1	Reports, age 1-2 (not COVID vaccine)	Age 1-2 per 100,000 children (approx.)	COVID-19 vaccine reports, age 0-2 (separate)
1990	25 (1989 schedule)	629	15.1	153	3.7	49	247	3.1	0
1991	25 (1989 schedule)	2,492	60.6	510	12.4	118	1,685	20.6	0
1992	25 (1989 schedule)	2,364	58.2	484	11.9	134	1,512	18.3	0
1993	25 (1989 schedule)	2,211	55.3	491	12.3	155	1,291	15.8	0
1994	34 (1994 schedule)	2,539	64.2	576	14.6	156	1,334	16.5	0
1995	34 (1994 schedule)	2,355	60.4	468	12.0	97	1,552	19.5	0
1996	34 (1994 schedule)	2,004	51.5	375	9.6	78	1,630	20.8	0
1997	34 (1994 schedule)	1,513	39.0	319	8.2	81	1,840	23.6	0
1998	34 (1994 schedule)	1,111	28.2	259	6.6	77	1,667	21.4	0
1999	34 (1994 schedule)	1,437	36.3	472	11.9	82	2,251	28.8	0
2000	35 (2000 schedule)	1,418	34.9	322	7.9	81	2,767	35.0	0
2001	35 (2000 schedule)	1,821	45.2	400	9.9	99	3,140	39.2	0
2002	35 (2000 schedule)	1,648	41.0	371	9.2	79	2,937	36.3	0
2003	35 (2000 schedule)	1,457	35.6	342	8.4	82	2,727	33.9	0
2004	35 (2000 schedule)	1,475	35.9	320	7.8	84	2,526	31.1	0
2005	35 (2000 schedule)	1,445	34.9	310	7.5	68	2,729	33.3	0
2006	35 (2000 schedule)	1,746	40.9	322	7.5	66	3,029	36.7	0
2007	35 (2000 schedule)	2,565	59.4	650	15.1	82	2,789	33.2	0
2008	35 (2000 schedule)	2,541	59.8	621	14.6	85	2,654	30.9	0
2009	35 (2000 schedule)	1,862	45.1	383	9.3	53	2,847	33.2	0
2010	50 (2010 schedule)	1,856	46.4	319	8.0	47	2,834	33.8	0
2011	50 (2010 schedule)	1,799	45.5	393	9.9	58	2,112	26.0	0
2012	50 (2010 schedule)	1,740	44.0	318	8.0	54	1,732	21.8	0
2013	50 (2010 schedule)	1,595	40.6	269	6.8	34	1,899	24.0	0
2014	50 (2010 schedule)	1,885	47.3	290	7.3	28	2,128	27.0	0
2015	50 (2010 schedule)	2,127	53.5	257	6.5	39	2,412	30.5	0
2016	50 (2010 schedule)	1,919	48.6	286	7.2	44	1,982	24.9	0
2017	50 (2010 schedule)	1,942	50.4	274	7.1	52	2,485	31.4	0
2018	50 (2010 schedule)	1,666	43.9	218	5.7	34	2,087	26.8	0
2019	50 (2010 schedule)	1,626	43.4	260	6.9	33	2,106	27.5	0
2020	50 (2020 schedule)	1,331	36.8	152	4.2	30	1,558	20.7	5
2021	50 (2020 schedule)	1,416	38.6	131	3.6	23	1,583	21.5	261
2022	50 (2020 schedule)	1,577	43.0	89	2.4	17	1,781	24.5	1,383
2023	50 (2020 schedule)	1,743	48.5	119	3.3	20	2,101	28.7	1,929
2024	50 (2020 schedule)	1,782	49.1	131	3.6	27	2,032	28.0	530
2025	50 (2025 schedule)	1,557	n/a	162	n/a	16	1,775	24.6	204

COVID-19 vaccine reports for children 0-2 are shown in their own column and are not in the other figures. 2025 births had not been published as final when this was checked, so 2025 rates for babies under 1 are not calculated.

VAERS 1991-2001 as published by CDC at the time (MMWR 2003)

CDC's 2003 surveillance summary reports these VAERS counts source. The current CDC WONDER count for the same year is shown for comparison; differences come from later updates to the data.

Year	Reports, under 1 (MMWR 2003)	Reports, under 1 (CDC WONDER today, not COVID vaccine)	Reports, age 1-6 (MMWR 2003)	All reports, all ages (MMWR 2003)
1991	2,543	2,492	2,531	10,004
1992	2,426	2,364	2,378	10,821
1993	2,296	2,211	2,154	10,327
1994	2,616	2,539	2,208	10,355
1995	2,439	2,355	2,484	10,301
1996	2,159	2,004	2,832	11,238
1997	1,732	1,513	3,294	11,711
1998	1,356	1,111	2,891	10,898
1999	1,743	1,437	3,557	13,157
2000	1,725	1,418	4,466	15,153
2001	2,260	1,821	5,620	14,752

US: Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP)

HRSA reports that since 1988 "over 30,322 petitions have been filed", 26,871 have been decided, "13,464 of those determined to be compensable, while 13,407 were dismissed", and about $5.6 billion has been paid source. HRSA also reports that "Approximately 60 percent of all compensation awarded by the VICP comes as result of a negotiated settlement" in which HHS has not concluded that the vaccine caused the injury, and that from 2006 to 2024, "for every 1 million doses of vaccine that were distributed, approximately 1 individual was compensated" source.

Fiscal year	Petitions filed	Found compensable	Dismissed	Paid to petitioners
FY 1990	1,492	97	43	$53.25 million
FY 1995	180	171	542	$104.09 million
FY 2000	163	125	106	$125.95 million
FY 2005	735	56	235	$55.07 million
FY 2010	447	180	321	$179.39 million
FY 2015	803	523	150	$204.14 million
FY 2020	1,192	718	232	$186.86 million
FY 2024	1,185	1,132	307	$149.65 million
FY 2025	1,300	1,048	271	$142.87 million
FY 2026	1,192	976	191	$148.28 million

All ages. Source: HRSA VICP monthly statistics, 1 Oct 2026. FY 2026 is the fiscal year to 30 Sept 2026. GAP: HRSA does not publish VICP claims split by child or adult.

UK: Vaccine Damage Payment Scheme (VDPS)

The VDPS pays a one-off £120,000 (not compensation) if, on the balance of probabilities, a vaccine caused severe disablement (at least 60%) source.

Awards each year, 1978-79 to 1995-96

Year	Awards
1978-79	36
1979-80	317
1980-81	256
1981-82	68
1982-83	38
1983-84	40
1984-85	36
1985-86	24
1986-87	17
1987-88	10
1988-89	3
1989-90	3
1991-92	7
1992-93	13
1994-95	7
1995-96	6

Hansard, 17 July 2008. Years not listed had no figure in the answer.

Awards, 1999/2000 to 2011/12

Year	Awards
1999/2000	4
2000/01	2
2001/02	3
2002/03	5
2003/04	5
2004/05	4
2005/06	5
2006/07	4
2007/08	2
2008/09	0
2009/10	3
2010/11	1
2011/12	0

DWP FOI 2012-3426

Claims and successful claims, 2000-2003

Year	Claims	Successful
2000	171	1
2001	176	2
2002	1,406	8
2003	183	0

Hansard, 12 Feb 2004.

Since COVID-19 vaccines: NHSBSA reports that from 26 August 2021 to 19 September 2024 it received 16,030 claims (all vaccines, all ages); 192 claimants were told they were entitled to a payment; 7,265 were refused because the assessor found the vaccine did not cause the disability; 386 because the disablement was not severe; 710 did not meet the criteria for assessment; 7,127 had no outcome yet source.

Gaps: the UK Yellow Card scheme does not publish reports by child age or outcome in a form this guide could use, so there is no UK equivalent of the VAERS table. VDPS figures are not split by child or adult and older figures are not linked to a named vaccine. VICP has no child/adult split.

Benefit vs risk per vaccine

For each routine vaccine: how common and how deadly the disease was before the vaccine and is now, next to the confirmed serious reactions and deaths from the vaccine. Open a row to see the figures and sources. The guide does not net one against the other; the numbers come from different sources and populations.

How to read it. "1 in X" and "%" are two ways of writing the same chance. "Crude, whole population" means recent cases divided by everyone in the country, vaccinated or not; it is not the chance for an unvaccinated child, which would be higher and is not published. "Confirmed" means an official review or a peer-reviewed study found the vaccine caused it. The greyed column counts reports only.

Guide's own arithmetic: recent-year rates per 100,000 people and '1 in X' are case counts divided by population (England mid-2025, England and Wales mid-2024, US 1 July 2024), rounded. Percentages next to reaction rates are the guide's conversion of the source's '1 in X'. Each 'Bottom line' converts the counts and rates in that block into a percentage and an 'about 1 in X' (count divided by population for 'everyone in the country' figures); 'not published' means no figure was found in the sources checked. Population: England England and Wales US. Case counts: disease sections of this guide.

MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) UK and US

The disease

Measles

Chance of catching it (per year)

0.0016%

UK about 1 in 61,400

0.00067%

US about 1 in 149,000

US: 0.00067% (about 1 in 149,000)

Chance of dying if you catch it

0.1–0.3%

about 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 333

Mumps

Chance of catching it (per year)

0.00026%

UK about 1 in 387,000

0.000099%

US about 1 in 1.01 million

US: 0.000099% (about 1 in 1.01 million)

Chance of dying if you catch it

–

not published

Rubella

Chance of catching it (per year)

no cases

Chance of dying if you catch it

–

not published

The vaccine

Fit with fever

0.025–0.033%

about 1 in 4,000 to 1 in 3,000

Severe allergic reaction

0.00013%

about 1 in 763,000

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

Measles Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England 2025: 0.0016% (about 1 in 61,400) source; US 2025: 0.00067% (about 1 in 149,000) source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): England & Wales 2025: 0.0000049% (about 1 in 20.6 million) source; US 2025: 0.00000088% (about 1 in 113 million) source | Dying if caught: US: 0.1% to 0.3% (about 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 333) source

Mumps Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England 2024: 0.00026% (about 1 in 387,000) source; US 2025: 0.000099% (about 1 in 1.01 million) source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): UK and US: not published | Dying if caught: not published (deaths 'very rare') source

Rubella Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England 2024: 0 source; US 2025: 0 source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): UK and US: 0 (no cases) | Dying if caught: not published (main harm is to unborn babies) source

vs the vaccine Febrile seizure (fit with fever) 6-14 days after, per vaccinated child: 0.025% to 0.033% (about 1 in 4,000 to 1 in 3,000) source; Low platelets (ITP), per vaccinated child: 0.0025% (about 1 in 40,000) source; Anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction), per dose, all vaccines: 0.00013% (about 1 in 763,000) source

Not the same units: disease figures are the chance per person in one year across the whole population (vaccinated or not); the chance for an unvaccinated child is higher and is not published. Vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child.

All known reactions

Common and rare reactions listed in official product information, WHO reaction-rate sheets, CDC pages and key studies. Chances are per dose unless stated. Percentages and "about 1 in X" are the guide's own conversion. Product-information bands are ranges (very common: 1 in 10 or more; common: 1 in 100 to 1 in 10; uncommon: 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 100; rare: 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000; very rare: fewer than 1 in 10,000). Many raw rates come from trials without a placebo group, so some of these events would have happened anyway.

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway
No rate cause accepted but no rate published
Claimed link what reviews found

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Sore, red or swollen arm Measles component.	17% to 30%	about 2 in 10 to 3 in 10	Raw rate	source
Fever Usually 6-12 days after.	5% to 10%	about 1 in 20 to 1 in 10	Raw rate	source
Rash	5%	about 1 in 20	Raw rate	source
Swollen glands by the jaw (parotid) Mumps component.	1% to 2%	about 1 in 100 to 1 in 50	Raw rate	source
Joint pain, children Rubella component; product information for the MMR+chickenpox jab.	up to 3%	up to about 1 in 33	Raw rate	source
Joint pain, women after puberty Up to 25% (arthritis about 10%). Rubella component.	25%	about 2 in 10	Raw rate	source
Fit with fever (febrile seizure) 6-14 days after WHO sheet gives 1 in 2,000 to 3,000 doses.	0.025% to 0.033%	about 1 in 4,000 to 1 in 3,000	Raw rate	source
Low platelets (ITP, bruising) WHO sheet: about 1 in 30,000 doses. Usually resolves.	0.0025%	about 1 in 40,000	Raw rate	source
Aseptic meningitis (Jeryl Lynn-type mumps strain used in UK/US) Other mumps strains not used in the UK/US: Urabe 90-490, Leningrad-Zagreb up to 900 per million.	0.0001% to 0.001%	about 1 in 1 million to 1 in 100,000	Raw rate	source
Brain inflammation (encephalitis / encephalomyelitis) WHO: about 1 per million doses or less. Not proven to be caused by the vaccine.	0.0001%	about 1 in 1 million	Raw rate	source
Severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis)	0.0001% to 0.00035%	about 1 in 1 million to 1 in 286,000	Raw rate	source
Measles vaccine-virus brain infection in people with very weak immune systems IOM 2011: evidence 'convincingly supports' a causal link in immunodeficient people. This is why the jab isn't given to them.	rate not published	–	No rate	source
Autism (claimed) IOM 2011: evidence favours rejection of a link. See the autism section.	no increased risk found	–	Claimed link	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

Measles: pre-vaccine vs 2025 US 20th-century annual average: 530,217 reported cases (estimated true 3-4 million/yr) vs 1,975 reported in 2025. source
Measles: pre-vaccine England & Wales 1940-1967 (before vaccine, 1968): typically 160,000-760,000 notifications and 30-1,100 deaths a year; e.g. 1967: 460,407 notifications, 99 deaths. source
Mumps: pre-vaccine vs 2025 US 20th-century annual average 162,344 cases vs 336 in 2025 (>99% decrease). source
Rubella (German measles): pre-vaccine vs 2025 US 20th-century annual average 47,745 rubella cases and 152 CRS cases vs 0 and 1 in 2025. source

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

Measles
- England 2025, lab-confirmed: 958 cases; 1.63 per 100,000 people (1 in 61,400)
- US 2025, confirmed: 2,289 cases; 0.67 per 100,000 people (1 in 148,600)
Mumps
- England 2024, lab-confirmed: 152 cases; 0.26 per 100,000 people (1 in 387,100)
- US 2025, reported: 336 cases; 0.10 per 100,000 people (1 in 1,012,200)
Rubella (German measles)
- England 2024: 0 cases; 0 per 100,000 people (none)
- US 2025: 0 cases; 0 per 100,000 people (none)

Chance of death if caught

Measles: 1 to 3 of every 1,000 children with measles die (US). source
Mumps: 'Permanent sequelae and death are very rare in both vaccinated and unvaccinated patients.' (no numeric CFR given) source
Rubella (German measles): Main harm is congenital rubella syndrome (deafness, eye defects, heart disease); risk highest in first 12 weeks of pregnancy. No CFR given. source

Confirmed serious reactions

Febrile seizure (fit with fever) 6-14 days after: 1 in 3,000 to 1 in 4,000 children (0.025% to 0.033%) source
Low platelets (ITP) within 6 weeks: 1 in 40,000 vaccinated children (one study) (0.0025%) source
Anaphylaxis (any vaccine): about 1 in 763,000 doses (0.00013%) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate. IOM 2011 found 'convincing' evidence that measles vaccine virus can cause brain infection (MIBE) in children with severe immune deficiency; no population rate given. source

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

This vaccine: 59 of 181 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised in children: none with an official rate.

Disputed claims and what reviews found

Autism: IOM 2011: evidence 'favors rejection' of a causal link with MMR. source
Autism (current CDC wording): CDC's page now says 'vaccines do not cause autism' is 'not an evidence-based claim' because studies have not ruled it out. source
Type 1 diabetes: IOM 2011: evidence 'favors rejection'. source

Chickenpox (varicella; MMRV) US; UK as MMRV on the 2026 schedule

The disease: Chickenpox

Chance of catching it (per year)

–

UK not published

0.01%

US about 1 in 9,930

US: 0.01% (about 1 in 9,930)

Chance of dying if you catch it

0.001%

about 1 in 100,000

The vaccine

Fit with fever

0.04–0.08%

about 1 in 2,500 to 1 in 1,250

Severe allergic reaction

0.00013%

about 1 in 763,000

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

Chickenpox Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England: not published (not a notifiable disease) source; US 2022: 0.01% (about 1 in 9,930) source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): England: not published for a recent year (an earlier analysis estimated 18.5 deaths a year, 2004-2013) source; US: not published | Dying if caught: children 1-14, pre-vaccine US data: 0.001% (about 1 in 100,000) source

vs the vaccine Febrile seizure after the first dose at 12-23 months, separate MMR + chickenpox jabs, per child: 0.04% (about 1 in 2,500) source; Same, MMRV combined jab (CDC: twice as likely; guide's arithmetic): 0.08% (about 1 in 1,250) source; Anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction), per dose, all vaccines: 0.00013% (about 1 in 763,000) source

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway
Extra over background extra cases compared with unvaccinated people or other periods
Product-info band official frequency band; not a precise rate
No rate cause accepted but no rate published

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Sore, red or swollen arm within 3 days, dose 1 Dose 2: about 1 in 4.	20%	about 2 in 10	Raw rate	source
Fever, dose 1 Dose 2: 4%.	7%	about 1 in 14	Raw rate	source
High fever (39.4°C or more), MMRV combined jab alone Range across clinical trials.	10.1% to 39.4%	about 1 in 10 to 4 in 10	Raw rate	source
Chickenpox-like or measles-like rash	1% to 10% common	1 in 100 to 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Irritability, diarrhoea, vomiting	1% to 10% common	1 in 100 to 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Fit with fever, separate MMR + chickenpox jabs, 12-23 months	0.04%	about 1 in 2,500	Raw rate	source
Extra fits with fever from the combined MMRV jab compared with separate jabs (days 5-12, first dose) 0.70 vs 0.32 per 1,000 children. No increase over 30 days.	0.038%	about 1 in 2,600	Extra over background	source
Shingles from the vaccine virus Reported after marketing; less common than after natural chickenpox.	not estimated not known	frequency not known	Product-info band	source
Vaccine-virus infection spreading through the body in people with very weak immune systems IOM 2011: evidence 'convincingly supports' a causal link in immunodeficient people.	rate not published	–	No rate	source
Severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis), all vaccines combined, per dose US study of 25 million doses; 33 cases.	0.00013%	about 1 in 763,000	Raw rate	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

Chickenpox (varicella): pre-vaccine vs 2022 US pre-vaccine estimate 4,085,120 cases/yr vs 34,238 (2022): 99% decrease; ~10,500 hospitalisations/yr pre-vaccine. source

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

Chickenpox (varicella)
- England: not notifiable, no case count
- US 2022, provisional: 34,238 cases; 10.1 per 100,000 people (1 in 9,934)

Chance of death if caught

Chickenpox (varicella): About 1 per 100,000 cases in children 1-14; 6 per 100,000 aged 15-19; 21 per 100,000 in adults (pre-vaccine US data). Newborns whose mother has chickenpox around delivery: up to 30% if antivirals not given. source

Confirmed serious reactions

Febrile seizure, first dose at 12-23 months: separate MMR + varicella: about 1 in 2,500; MMRV: CDC says twice as likely (0.04% (separate); about 0.08% for MMRV, this guide's arithmetic) source
Anaphylaxis (any vaccine): about 1 in 763,000 doses (0.00013%) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate. IOM 2011: 'convincing' evidence that vaccine-strain virus can spread through the body in children with immune deficiency; no population rate given. source

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

This vaccine: 45 of 136 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: none with an official rate.

Disputed claims and what reviews found

None listed in the sources checked.

Diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough (in the 6-in-1 / DTaP) UK and US

The disease

Whooping cough

Chance of catching it (per year)

0.025%

UK about 1 in 3,950

0.0083%

US about 1 in 12,100

US: 0.0083% (about 1 in 12,100)

Chance of dying if you catch it

–

not published

Tetanus

Chance of catching it (per year)

0.00001%

UK about 1 in 9.81 million

0.000011%

US about 1 in 9.19 million

US: 0.000011% (about 1 in 9.19 million)

Chance of dying if you catch it

11%

about 1 in 9

Diphtheria

Chance of catching it (per year)

0.0000034%

UK about 1 in 29.4 million

US no cases

US: 0 (no cases)

Chance of dying if you catch it

5–10%

about 1 in 20 to 1 in 10

The vaccine

Floppy, unresponsive episode

0.014–0.062%

about 1 in 7,140 to 1 in 1,610

Severe allergic reaction

0.00013%

about 1 in 763,000

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

Whooping cough Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England 2024: 0.025% (about 1 in 3,950) source; US 2025: 0.0083% (about 1 in 12,100) source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): England 2024 (11 infant deaths): 0.000019% (about 1 in 5.35 million) source; US 2024: 0.0000029% (about 1 in 34 million) source | Dying if caught: no single rate published source

Tetanus Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England 2024: 0.00001% (about 1 in 9.81 million) source; US 2025: 0.000011% (about 1 in 9.19 million) source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): England 2024: 0.0000034% (about 1 in 29.4 million) source; US: not published | Dying if caught: recent US cases: 11% (about 1 in 9) source

Diphtheria Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England 2024: 0.0000034% (about 1 in 29.4 million) source; US 2025: 0 source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): England 2024: 0 source; US 2025: 0 (no cases) source | Dying if caught: overall: 5% to 10% (about 1 in 20 to 1 in 10) source

vs the vaccine Seizures or brain problems after DTaP: no increased risk found in studies source; Anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction), per dose, all vaccines: 0.00013% (about 1 in 763,000) source; Old whole-cell DTP (no longer used): acute brain inflammation, per dose: 0% to 0.0011% (up to about 1 in 95,200) source; Floppy, unresponsive episode (HHE) after the acellular jab, per dose (child recovers): 0.014% to 0.062% (about 1 in 7,140 to 1 in 1,610) source

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway
Product-info band official frequency band; not a precise rate
Claimed link what reviews found

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Redness at the injection site (1-20 mm), acellular jab Any dose. Old whole-cell jab: 56.3%.	31.4%	about 3 in 10	Raw rate	source
Moderate pain, acellular jab Old whole-cell jab: 25.6%.	6.5%	about 1 in 15	Raw rate	source
Fever 37.8-38.3°C Old whole-cell jab: 44.5%.	20.8%	about 2 in 10	Raw rate	source
Fever over 40°C Old whole-cell jab: 3.5%.	0.9%	about 1 in 111	Raw rate	source
Drowsiness	42.7%	about 4 in 10	Raw rate	source
Loss of appetite	21.7%	about 2 in 10	Raw rate	source
Vomiting	12.6%	about 1 in 7	Raw rate	source
Severe fussiness	4.7%	about 1 in 21	Raw rate	source
Swelling of the whole limb (mainly booster doses)	0.01% to 0.1% rare	1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000	Product-info band	source
Persistent crying for 3 hours or more Old whole-cell jab: 3.5%.	up to 0.2%	up to about 1 in 500	Raw rate	source
Floppy, unresponsive episode (HHE) Per dose. Old whole-cell jab: 57-250 per 100,000. Children recover.	0.014% to 0.062%	about 1 in 7,140 to 1 in 1,610	Raw rate	source
Fits (seizures) Old whole-cell jab: 6 per 100,000. CDC: no increased risk found with DTaP.	0.0005%	about 1 in 200,000	Raw rate	source
Low platelets, breathing pauses (apnoea) in premature babies Apnoea listed for babies born 28 weeks or earlier.	0.01% to 0.1% rare	1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000	Product-info band	source
Brain damage (encephalopathy) Old whole-cell jab: 0.3-5.3 per million doses (WHO); IOM 1994: 0-10.5 per million.	no documented risk (acellular)	–	Claimed link	source
Higher fever if given with the pneumococcal booster Fever 38°C+ in 43.4% vs 30.5% with the 6-in-1 alone.	43.4%	about 4 in 10	Raw rate	source
Severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis), all vaccines combined, per dose US study of 25 million doses; 33 cases.	0.00013%	about 1 in 763,000	Raw rate	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

Diphtheria: pre-vaccine vs 2025 US 20th-century annual average 21,053 cases vs 0 in 2025. source
Tetanus (lockjaw): pre-vaccine vs 2025 US 20th-century annual average 580 cases vs 37 in 2025. source
Whooping cough (pertussis): pre-vaccine vs 2025 US 20th-century annual average 200,752 cases vs 28,132 in 2025 (86% decrease). source

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

Diphtheria
- England 2024, toxigenic C. diphtheriae: 2 cases; 0.00 per 100,000 people (1 in 29,417,400)
- US 2025: 0 cases; 0 per 100,000 people (none)
Tetanus (lockjaw)
- England 2024: 6 cases; 0.01 per 100,000 people (1 in 9,805,800)
- US 2025: 37 cases; 0.01 per 100,000 people (1 in 9,192,200)
Whooping cough (pertussis)
- England 2024, lab-confirmed: 14,879 cases; 25.3 per 100,000 people (1 in 3,954)
- US 2025, reported: 28,132 cases; 8.27 per 100,000 people (1 in 12,100)

Chance of death if caught

Diphtheria: Overall case fatality 5-10%. source
Tetanus (lockjaw): About 11% of recent US cases fatal; highest in people 60+ and the unvaccinated. source
Whooping cough (pertussis): US 2000-2017: 307 deaths; pneumonia in 13.2% of all cases and 18.6% of infants <6 months. No single CFR given. source
Whooping cough (pertussis): US 2024: infants <6 months had the highest hospitalisation rate (33.4%). source

Confirmed serious reactions

Seizures or brain problems after DTaP: studies found no increased risk source
Anaphylaxis (any vaccine): about 1 in 763,000 doses (0.00013%) source
Old whole-cell DTP (no longer used): acute encephalopathy: 0 to 10.5 per million immunisations (IOM 1991: evidence 'consistent with' a causal relation) (0% to 0.00105%) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate. SIDS: see the SIDS section below.

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

DTaP-containing: 706 of 1,394 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours
Whole-cell DTP (old): 389 of 867 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: none with an official rate. IOM 1991/1994: evidence insufficient on permanent brain damage after whole-cell DTP. source

Disputed claims and what reviews found

Type 1 diabetes: IOM 2011: evidence 'favors rejection' (DTaP). source
Asthma, allergies, autoimmune disease (whole schedule): IOM 2013 found no evidence the schedule is unsafe, but noted few studies of these outcomes; not established either way. source

Polio (IPV; oral OPV in the past) UK and US (injected IPV)

The disease: Polio (paralytic)

Chance of catching it (per year)

no cases

Chance of dying if you catch it

2–5%

about 1 in 50 to 1 in 20

The vaccine

Severe allergic reaction

0.00013%

about 1 in 763,000

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

Polio (paralytic) Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): UK: 0 cases source; US 2025: 0 cases source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): UK: 0 (no cases) source; US 2025: 0 (no cases) source | Dying if caught: children with paralytic polio: 2% to 5% (about 1 in 50 to 1 in 20) source

vs the vaccine IPV (used now): anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction), per dose, all vaccines: 0.00013% (about 1 in 763,000) source; Old oral vaccine (OPV, no longer used): paralysis, per dose: 0.000042% (about 1 in 2.4 million) source; OPV, per first dose: 0.00013% (about 1 in 750,000) source

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Tenderness at the injection site (IPV)	14% to 29%	about 1 in 10 to 3 in 10	Raw rate	source
Hard lump at the injection site	3% to 11%	about 1 in 33 to 1 in 9	Raw rate	source
Redness	0.5% to 1%	about 1 in 200 to 1 in 100	Raw rate	source
Serious reactions to IPV In the UK and US, IPV is part of the 6-in-1, so its rows also apply.	none documented	–	Raw rate	source
Old oral vaccine (OPV, not used in UK/US): paralysis, per dose WHO sheet: 1 in 6.4 million doses in the child given the vaccine, 1 in 2.9 million including contacts.	0.000042%	about 1 in 2.4 million	Raw rate	source
Severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis), all vaccines combined, per dose US study of 25 million doses; 33 cases.	0.00013%	about 1 in 763,000	Raw rate	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

Polio: pre-vaccine vs 2025 US 20th-century annual average 16,316 paralytic cases (21,000+ in 1952) vs 0 in 2025. source

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

Polio
- UK: no paralytic cases: 0 cases; 0 per 100,000 people (none)
- US 2025: no paralytic cases: 0 cases; 0 per 100,000 people (none)

Chance of death if caught

Polio: Paralytic polio: 2-5% of children and 15-30% of adolescents/adults die. source

Confirmed serious reactions

IPV: anaphylaxis (any vaccine): about 1 in 763,000 doses (0.00013%) source
Old oral polio vaccine (OPV): vaccine-associated paralytic polio: 1 in 2.4 million doses; 1 in 750,000 first doses (US 1980-94) (0.00004%; 0.00013% for first doses) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate for IPV. IPV contains no live virus and cannot cause paralytic polio. The US moved to IPV only in 2000. source

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

IPV-containing: 259 of 553 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours
Oral polio (old): 352 of 791 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: paralysis from OPV (above).

Disputed claims and what reviews found

None listed in the sources checked.

Hib UK and US

The disease: Hib

Chance of catching it (per year)

0.000025%

UK about 1 in 3.92 million

–

US not calculated

US: – (not calculated)

Chance of dying if you catch it

3–6%

about 1 in 33 to 1 in 16

The vaccine

Severe allergic reaction

0.00013%

about 1 in 763,000

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

Hib Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England 2024, all ages: 0.000025% (about 1 in 3.92 million) source; US 2025: 21 cases in under-5s (rate not calculated: the under-5 population is not in the sources) source; US before the vaccine, per child by age 5: 0.5% (about 1 in 200) source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): England 2024 (2 adult deaths): 0.0000034% (about 1 in 29.4 million) source; US: not published | Dying if caught: Hib meningitis, pre-vaccine data: 3% to 6% (about 1 in 33 to 1 in 16) source

vs the vaccine Seizures, meningitis, allergic reactions, fever in under-1s: no increased risk found source; Anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction), per dose, all vaccines: 0.00013% (about 1 in 763,000) source

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Injection-site reaction (pain, redness, swelling)	10%	about 1 in 10	Raw rate	source
Fever	2%	about 1 in 50	Raw rate	source
Serious reactions Given in the 6-in-1, so its rows also apply.	none known	–	Raw rate	source
Severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis), all vaccines combined, per dose US study of 25 million doses; 33 cases.	0.00013%	about 1 in 763,000	Raw rate	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

Hib (Haemophilus influenzae type b): pre-vaccine vs 2025 US: ~1 in 200 children under 5 developed invasive Hib; ~20,000 cases/yr vs 21 in 2025. source source 2

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

Hib (Haemophilus influenzae type b)
- England 2024, invasive, all ages: 15 cases; 0.03 per 100,000 people (1 in 3,922,300)
- US 2025, children under 5 only rate not calculated

Chance of death if caught

Hib (Haemophilus influenzae type b): Hib meningitis: 3-6% die even with treatment (pre-vaccine era data). source

Confirmed serious reactions

Seizures, meningitis/encephalitis, allergic reactions, fever (under 1s): Vaccine Safety Datalink study found no increased risk source
Anaphylaxis (any vaccine): about 1 in 763,000 doses (0.00013%) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate.

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

This vaccine: 731 of 1,580 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: none with an official rate.

Disputed claims and what reviews found

None listed in the sources checked.

Hepatitis B UK (in 6-in-1) and US (birth dose)

The disease: Hepatitis B (acute)

Chance of catching it (per year)

0.00041%

UK about 1 in 246,000

0.00065%

US about 1 in 154,000

US: 0.00065% (about 1 in 154,000)

Chance of dying if you catch it

–

not published

The vaccine

Severe allergic reaction

0.00013%

about 1 in 763,000

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

Hepatitis B (acute) Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England 2022: 0.00041% (about 1 in 246,000) source; US 2023: 0.00065% (about 1 in 154,000) source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): UK and US: not published | Dying if caught: not published; the main harm is lifelong infection: up to 90% of babies infected at birth stay infected source

vs the vaccine Anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction), per dose, all vaccines: 0.00013% (about 1 in 763,000) source

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Pain at the injection site	3% to 29%	about 1 in 10 to 3 in 10	Raw rate	source
Redness	3%	about 1 in 33	Raw rate	source
Swelling	3%	about 1 in 33	Raw rate	source
Fever over 37.7°C	1% to 6%	about 1 in 100 to 1 in 16	Raw rate	source
Headache Older children and adults.	3%	about 1 in 33	Raw rate	source
Severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis), hep B jab	0.00011%	about 1 in 909,000	Raw rate	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

Hepatitis B: pre-vaccine vs 2021 US pre-vaccine estimate 66,232 acute cases/yr vs 13,300 (2021 estimate): 80% decrease. source

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

Hepatitis B
- England 2022, acute diagnoses: 239 cases; 0.41 per 100,000 people (1 in 246,200)
- US 2023, reported acute: 2,214 cases; 0.65 per 100,000 people (1 in 153,600)

Chance of death if caught

Hepatitis B: Up to 90% of infants infected at birth become chronically infected; 30-50% if infected age 1-5; ~5% in adults. source

Confirmed serious reactions

Anaphylaxis (any vaccine): about 1 in 763,000 doses (0.00013%) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate.

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

This vaccine: 323 of 711 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: none with an official rate.

Disputed claims and what reviews found

Aluminium adjuvant effects: See Ingredients of concern: aluminium. A 2017 mouse study on aluminium and brain genes was retracted (see Retracted papers). source

Pneumococcal (PCV) UK and US

The disease: Invasive pneumococcal disease

Chance of catching it (per year)

0.0078%

UK about 1 in 12,800

0.0051%

US about 1 in 19,500

US: 0.0051% (about 1 in 19,500)

Chance of dying if you catch it

12%

about 1 in 8

The vaccine

Severe allergic reaction

0.00013%

about 1 in 763,000

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

Invasive pneumococcal disease Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England 2022-23: 0.0078% (about 1 in 12,800) source; US 2021, estimate: 0.0051% (about 1 in 19,500) source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): UK and US: not published for a recent year | Dying if caught: bloodstream infection: 12% (about 1 in 8) source

vs the vaccine Anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction), per dose, all vaccines: 0.00013% (about 1 in 763,000) source

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway
Product-info band official frequency band; not a precise rate

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Irritability Babies, 3-dose course, given with other routine jabs (no placebo group).	71% to 71.9%	about 7 in 10	Raw rate	source
Drowsiness Same trials.	50.9% to 61.2%	about 5 in 10 to 6 in 10	Raw rate	source
Pain at the injection site	22.8% to 42.4%	about 2 in 10 to 4 in 10	Raw rate	source
Loss of appetite	24.7% to 39.3%	about 2 in 10 to 4 in 10	Raw rate	source
Redness	25.3% to 36.9%	about 3 in 10 to 4 in 10	Raw rate	source
Swelling	21.4% to 29.8%	about 2 in 10 to 3 in 10	Raw rate	source
Fever 38°C or more	8.9% to 24.3%	about 1 in 10 to 2 in 10	Raw rate	source
Fits, including fits with fever	0.1% to 1% uncommon	1 in 1,000 to 1 in 100	Product-info band	source
Floppy, unresponsive episode (HHE)	0.01% to 0.1% rare	1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000	Product-info band	source
Fit with fever if given with flu jab at the same visit 2012 US study of the 2010-11 flu jab plus PCV13.	higher risk; rate not on the source page	–	Raw rate	source
Severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis), all vaccines combined, per dose US study of 25 million doses; 33 cases.	0.00013%	about 1 in 763,000	Raw rate	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

Pneumococcal disease: pre-vaccine vs 2021 US pre-vaccine estimate 63,067 invasive cases/yr (all ages) vs 17,400 (2021); under 5: 16,069 vs 900; ~200 child deaths/yr pre-vaccine. source source 2

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

Pneumococcal disease
- England 2022-23, invasive: 4,598 cases; 7.82 per 100,000 people (1 in 12,800)
- US 2021, estimated invasive: 17,400 cases; 5.12 per 100,000 people (1 in 19,500)

Chance of death if caught

Pneumococcal disease: Bacteremia ~12%; pneumococcal meningitis ~14% in adults; bacteremic pneumonia ~10%. source

Confirmed serious reactions

Anaphylaxis (any vaccine): about 1 in 763,000 doses (0.00013%) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate.

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

This vaccine: 544 of 1,095 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: none with an official rate.

Disputed claims and what reviews found

None listed in the sources checked.

Rotavirus UK and US (by mouth)

The disease: Rotavirus

Chance of catching it (per year)

0.0054%

UK about 1 in 18,400

–

US not published

US: – (not published)

Chance of dying if you catch it

–

not published

The vaccine

Bowel blockage

0.001–0.005%

about 1 in 100,000 to 1 in 20,000

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

Rotavirus Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England 2023-24, positive lab tests: 0.0054% (about 1 in 18,400) source; US: not published (only about 18,400 hospital stays in under-3s, 2022 estimate) source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): UK and US: not published (US: 20-60 child deaths a year before the vaccine) source | Dying if caught: not published

vs the vaccine Bowel blockage (intussusception) within a week, per vaccinated infant: 0.001% to 0.005% (about 1 in 100,000 to 1 in 20,000) source

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway
Extra over background extra cases compared with unvaccinated people or other periods
Product-info band official frequency band; not a precise rate

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Diarrhoea Placebo trials: not significantly more than placebo.	1% to 10% common	1 in 100 to 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Irritability Same.	1% to 10% common	1 in 100 to 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Tummy pain, wind	0.1% to 1% uncommon	1 in 1,000 to 1 in 100	Product-info band	source
Skin rash (dermatitis)	0.1% to 1% uncommon	1 in 1,000 to 1 in 100	Product-info band	source
Hives	under 0.01% very rare	fewer than 1 in 10,000	Product-info band	source
Bowel blockage (intussusception) within a week	0.001% to 0.005%	about 1 in 100,000 to 1 in 20,000	Raw rate	source
Extra cases of bowel blockage (intussusception) Up to 6 extra per 100,000 babies, mostly within 7 days of dose 1. Background: 25-101 per 100,000 babies a year.	up to 0.006%	up to about 1 in 16,700	Extra over background	source
Blood in stool	not estimated not known	frequency not known	Product-info band	source
Gut infection with vaccine virus in babies with SCID (severe immune deficiency)	not estimated not known	frequency not known	Product-info band	source
Breathing pauses (apnoea) in very premature babies	not estimated not known	frequency not known	Product-info band	source
Severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis)	not estimated not known	frequency not known	Product-info band	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

Rotavirus: pre vs post vaccine England & Wales lab reports: 14,950 in 2013 (pre-vaccine) vs 2,705 in 2016. source
Rotavirus: pre-vaccine vs 2022 US: 62,500 hospitalisations/yr (<3 years) pre-vaccine vs 18,400 (2022). source

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

Rotavirus
- England 2023-24, positive lab reports: 3,199 cases; 5.44 per 100,000 people (1 in 18,400)
- US: ~18,400 hospitalisations in under-3s (2022 estimate); no case count

Chance of death if caught

Rotavirus: US pre-vaccine: 20-60 deaths/yr in children <5 (55,000-70,000 hospitalisations); deaths rare in high-income countries. source

Confirmed serious reactions

Intussusception (bowel blockage) within a week: 1 in 20,000 to 1 in 100,000 infants (US: 40-120 a year) (0.001% to 0.005%) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate.

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

This vaccine: 276 of 540 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: none with an official rate.

Disputed claims and what reviews found

None listed in the sources checked.

MenB UK (US: age 16-23 only, shared decision)

The disease: Meningococcal disease (all groups)

Chance of catching it (per year)

0.00058%

UK about 1 in 173,000

0.00013%

US about 1 in 778,000

US: 0.00013% (about 1 in 778,000)

Chance of dying if you catch it

2.3%

UK about 1 in 43

10.5%

US about 1 in 9

US: 10.5% (about 1 in 9)

The vaccine

Severe allergic reaction

0.00013%

about 1 in 763,000

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

Meningococcal disease (all groups) Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England 2023-24: 0.00058% (about 1 in 173,000) source; US 2023: 0.00013% (about 1 in 778,000) source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): England 2023-24: 0.000014% (about 1 in 7.35 million) source; US: not published as a count | Dying if caught: England 2023-24, provisional: 2.3% (about 1 in 43) source; US 2023: 10.5% (about 1 in 9) source

vs the vaccine MenB-specific serious reaction: not published; Anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction), per dose, all vaccines: 0.00013% (about 1 in 763,000) source

England: 88% of cases were group B.

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway
Product-info band official frequency band; not a precise rate

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Fever 38°C or more in babies (with routine jabs) 44-59% with the routine jabs alone (trial comparison).	69% to 79%	about 7 in 10 to 8 in 10	Raw rate	source
Tenderness, redness, swelling, hard lump at the injection site	10% or more very common	more than 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Irritability, unusual crying, sleepiness, eating problems	10% or more very common	more than 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Diarrhoea, vomiting	10% or more very common	more than 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Rash (12-23 months)	10% or more very common	more than 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Fever 40°C or more	0.1% to 1% uncommon	1 in 1,000 to 1 in 100	Product-info band	source
Fits, including fits with fever	0.1% to 1% uncommon	1 in 1,000 to 1 in 100	Product-info band	source
Kawasaki syndrome Listed as rare in the product information.	0.01% to 0.1% rare	1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000	Product-info band	source
Floppy, unresponsive episode (HHE); swelling of the whole limb	not estimated not known	frequency not known	Product-info band	source
Teenagers: pain, headache, nausea, muscle and joint pain, feeling unwell Fainting: frequency not known.	10% or more very common	more than 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis), all vaccines combined, per dose US study of 25 million doses; 33 cases.	0.00013%	about 1 in 763,000	Raw rate	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

See disease section.

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

Meningococcal group B (MenB)
- England 2023-24, invasive meningococcal, all groups: 341 cases; 0.58 per 100,000 people (1 in 172,500)
- US 2023, all groups: 437 cases; 0.13 per 100,000 people (1 in 778,300)

Chance of death if caught

Meningococcal group B (MenB): Overall CFR 10-15% even with antibiotics; up to 20% of survivors have lasting damage (hearing loss, brain damage, limb loss). source

Confirmed serious reactions

Anaphylaxis (any vaccine): about 1 in 763,000 doses (0.00013%) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate.

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

No VAERS death reports in this group for ages 0-2, or not counted.

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: none with an official rate.

Disputed claims and what reviews found

None listed in the sources checked.

GAP: no MenB-specific serious-reaction rate found in CDC/UKHSA sources checked. VAERS has no MenB death reports for ages 0-2 in this query.

MenACWY UK (teenagers) and US (age 11-12, 16)

The disease: Meningococcal disease (all groups)

Chance of catching it (per year)

0.00058%

UK about 1 in 173,000

0.00013%

US about 1 in 778,000

US: 0.00013% (about 1 in 778,000)

Chance of dying if you catch it

2.3%

UK about 1 in 43

10.5%

US about 1 in 9

US: 10.5% (about 1 in 9)

The vaccine

Severe allergic reaction

0.00013%

about 1 in 763,000

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

vs the vaccine Anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction), per dose, all vaccines: 0.00013% (about 1 in 763,000) source

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway
Product-info band official frequency band; not a precise rate
No rate cause accepted but no rate published

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Pain, redness, swelling at the injection site	10% or more very common	more than 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Headache, tiredness, fever	10% or more very common	more than 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Irritability, drowsiness, loss of appetite (young children)	10% or more very common	more than 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Diarrhoea, vomiting, nausea	1% to 10% common	1 in 100 to 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Dizziness, itching, rash, hives, muscle pain	0.1% to 1% uncommon	1 in 1,000 to 1 in 100	Product-info band	source
Fit with fever	0.01% to 0.1% rare	1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000	Product-info band	source
Swelling of the whole limb	not estimated not known	frequency not known	Product-info band	source
Fainting soon after the jab (mostly teenagers) CDC: injections can occasionally cause fainting; sitting for 15 minutes reduces falls.	rate not published	–	No rate	source
Shoulder injury from a jab given too high (bursitis, tendon, nerve or bone injury) National Academies 2024: causal when the needle goes into or next to the bursa, tendon, bone or nerve. They did not estimate a rate.	rate not published	–	No rate	source
Severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis), all vaccines combined, per dose US study of 25 million doses; 33 cases.	0.00013%	about 1 in 763,000	Raw rate	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

See disease section.

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

Meningococcal groups A, C, W, Y
- England 2023-24, invasive meningococcal, all groups (same count as MenB row): 341 cases; 0.58 per 100,000 people (1 in 172,500)
- US 2023, all groups: 437 cases; 0.13 per 100,000 people (1 in 778,300)

Chance of death if caught

Meningococcal groups A, C, W, Y: Overall CFR 10-15%. source

Confirmed serious reactions

Anaphylaxis: IOM 2011: 'convincing' evidence for meningococcal vaccines; about 1 in 763,000 doses for all vaccines (0.00013%) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate.

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

This vaccine: 0 of 5 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: none with an official rate.

Disputed claims and what reviews found

None listed in the sources checked.

HPV UK and US (age 11-14)

The disease: HPV-linked cancer

Chance of catching it (per year)

–

UK not calculated

0.015%

US about 1 in 6,810

US: 0.015% (about 1 in 6,810)

Chance of dying if you catch it

–

not applicable

The vaccine

Severe allergic reaction

0.00013%

about 1 in 763,000

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

HPV-linked cancer Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): UK: 3,299 cervical cancers a year (rate not calculated: UK population not in the sources) source; US, recent annual estimate: 0.015% (about 1 in 6,810) source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): UK: 880 cervical cancer deaths a year (rate not calculated) source; US: not published | Dying if caught: not applicable: infection usually clears; the harm is cancer years later source

vs the vaccine Anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction), per dose, all vaccines: 0.00013% (about 1 in 763,000) source

Not the same units: cancer figures are per person per year across the whole population, mostly adults, years after infection; the vaccine figure is per dose.

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway
Product-info band official frequency band; not a precise rate
No rate cause accepted but no rate published

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Any injection-site reaction within 5 days Mostly pain, swelling, redness.	84.8%	about 8 in 10	Raw rate	source
Swelling at the injection site	26.9% to 40.3%	about 3 in 10 to 4 in 10	Raw rate	source
Redness at the injection site	24.9% to 34%	about 2 in 10 to 3 in 10	Raw rate	source
Headache	13.2%	about 1 in 7	Raw rate	source
Dizziness, nausea, fever, tiredness, bruising	1% to 10% common	1 in 100 to 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Fainting, sometimes with jerking movements Sitting or lying down for 15 minutes is advised.	0.1% to 1% uncommon	1 in 1,000 to 1 in 100	Product-info band	source
Swollen glands, joint or muscle pain, hives	0.1% to 1% uncommon	1 in 1,000 to 1 in 100	Product-info band	source
Severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis), HPV jab	0.00017%	about 1 in 588,000	Raw rate	source
Shoulder injury from a jab given too high (bursitis, tendon, nerve or bone injury) National Academies 2024: causal when the needle goes into or next to the bursa, tendon, bone or nerve. They did not estimate a rate.	rate not published	–	No rate	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

HPV (human papillomavirus): pre-vaccine US pre-vaccine (2003-06): an estimated 79 million infected; 14 million new infections/yr. source

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

No single case count: see the disease section for this guide's figures.

Chance of death if caught

HPV (human papillomavirus): Not applicable as a single figure - infection usually clears; harm is cancer years later. source

Confirmed serious reactions

Anaphylaxis: IOM 2011: 'convincing' evidence for HPV vaccine; about 1 in 763,000 doses for all vaccines (0.00013%) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate.

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

No VAERS death reports in this group for ages 0-2, or not counted.

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: none with an official rate.

Disputed claims and what reviews found

Lower fertility: Claimed by DeLong 2018; the paper was retracted in 2019 (see Retracted papers). source
Autoimmune conditions: IOM 2011 found the evidence inadequate to accept or reject most autoimmune outcomes. source

Flu (children) UK (nasal, age 2-16) and US (from 6 months)

The disease: Flu

Chance of catching it (per year)

–

not published

Chance of dying if you catch it

–

not published

The vaccine

Nerve damage (Guillain-Barré) after the flu jab

<0.0002%

fewer than 1 to 2 in 1 million

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

Flu Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): UK and US: not published (no case counts) | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): England 2024-25: about 53 child deaths (rate per child not calculated: child population not in the sources) source; US 2024-25: 280 child deaths (rate not calculated) source | Dying if caught: no single rate published source

vs the vaccine Guillain-Barre syndrome (injected flu vaccine), per person vaccinated: under 0.0001% to 0.0002% (fewer than 1 to 2 in 1 million) source; Narcolepsy after Pandemrix (2009-10, no longer used), per dose: 0.0017% to 0.0019% (about 1 in 57,500 to 1 in 52,000) source

Child flu deaths are counts only, so no like-for-like comparison is possible; the vaccine figures are per person vaccinated or per dose.

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway
Extra over background extra cases compared with unvaccinated people or other periods
Product-info band official frequency band; not a precise rate
No rate cause accepted but no rate published

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Runny or blocked nose (nasal spray) UK children's flu vaccine is the nasal spray.	56.7%	about 6 in 10	Raw rate	source
Loss of appetite, feeling unwell	10% or more very common	more than 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Headache, muscle aches, fever	1% to 10% common	1 in 100 to 1 in 10	Product-info band	source
Nosebleed, rash, allergic reaction	0.1% to 1% uncommon	1 in 1,000 to 1 in 100	Product-info band	source
Wheezing in babies 6-23 months (not licensed under 2) 3.8% with the injected vaccine. In children with asthma, wheezing was lower with the spray (19.5% vs 23.8%).	5.9%	about 1 in 16	Raw rate	source
Severe allergic reaction (nasal spray)	under 0.01% very rare	fewer than 1 in 10,000	Product-info band	source
Guillain-Barré syndrome (injected flu jab) CDC: some studies estimate the risk at fewer than 1 or 2 cases per million people vaccinated; other studies found no link. CDC: not associated with the nasal spray (product information lists it as frequency not known).	up to 0.0002%	up to about 1 in 500,000	Extra over background	source
Fit with fever if given with PCV13 at the same visit	higher risk; rate not on the source page	–	Raw rate	source
Narcolepsy after Pandemrix (2009-10 only) No longer used.	0.0017% to 0.0019%	about 1 in 57,500 to 1 in 52,000	Extra over background	source
Fainting soon after the jab (mostly teenagers) CDC: injections can occasionally cause fainting; sitting for 15 minutes reduces falls.	rate not published	–	No rate	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

See disease section.

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

No single case count: see the disease section for this guide's figures.

Chance of death if caught

Flu (influenza): Varies widely by season and age; most deaths in people 65+. source

Confirmed serious reactions

Guillain-Barre syndrome (injected flu vaccine): fewer than 1-2 per million people vaccinated (some studies found no link) (under 0.0001%-0.0002%) source
Narcolepsy after Pandemrix (2009-10 pandemic vaccine, no longer used): 1 in 52,000 to 1 in 57,500 doses (England, children) (0.0017% to 0.0019%) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate.

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

This vaccine: 76 of 138 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: narcolepsy after Pandemrix (above; BMJ 2013 says the risk may be overestimated). source

Disputed claims and what reviews found

Asthma attacks (inactivated vaccine): IOM 2011: evidence 'favors rejection'. source

COVID-19 US (from 6 months); UK at-risk only

The disease: COVID-19

Chance of catching it (per year)

–

not published

Chance of dying if you catch it

0.005%

about 1 in 20,000

The vaccine

Heart inflammation (teenage boys, 2nd dose)

0.0071–0.011%

about 1 in 14,100 to 1 in 9,440

Nerve damage (Guillain-Barré), Pfizer and Moderna

No rise found

in large studies

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

COVID-19 Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): UK and US: not published as a rate for children | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): England, Mar 2020-Feb 2021, per child under 18: 0.00021% (about 1 in 480,000) source; US Jul 2024-Jun 2025: 187 child deaths (rate not calculated) source | Dying if caught: England under-18s, 2020-21, per infected child: 0.005% (about 1 in 20,000) source

vs the vaccine Myocarditis, males 16-17, dose 2 (Pfizer), per dose: 0.011% (about 1 in 9,440) source; Myocarditis, males 12-15, dose 2 (Pfizer), per dose: 0.0071% (about 1 in 14,100) source; Guillain-Barre syndrome, Pfizer and Moderna: no increased risk found in large studies source; Guillain-Barre syndrome, AstraZeneca (not used now), per first dose: 0.00038% (about 1 in 263,000) source; Guillain-Barre syndrome, Johnson & Johnson (not used now), confirmed cases per dose: 0.0019% (about 1 in 53,800) source

Closer match: the England death figure is per child over 11 months (2020-21, earlier variants); the myocarditis figures are per dose in teenage boys, the groups with the highest rates in that study.

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway
Extra over background extra cases compared with unvaccinated people or other periods
Product-info band official frequency band; not a precise rate
Reporting rate reports to a surveillance system per dose
No rate cause accepted but no rate published

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Babies 6-23 months: irritability More than 60%. Also drowsiness over 40%, loss of appetite over 30%, tenderness over 20%, fever over 10%. Placebo-controlled trial.	more than 60%	more than 6 in 10	Raw rate	source
Children 2-4: pain at the injection site, tiredness More than 40%; redness and fever more than 10%.	more than 40%	more than 4 in 10	Raw rate	source
Ages 12-15: pain at the injection site More than 90%; tiredness and headache over 70%; muscle pain and chills over 40%; joint pain and fever over 20%.	more than 90%	more than 9 in 10	Raw rate	source
Facial paralysis (Bell's palsy) 4 cases in the vaccine group, 0 with placebo. National Academies 2024 favours rejecting a link for mRNA jabs.	0.01% to 0.1% rare	1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000	Product-info band	source
Extra heart inflammation (myocarditis), males 12-29, 7 days after dose 2 (Pfizer) European study: 0.265 extra per 10,000 (95% CI 0.255-0.275).	0.0027%	about 1 in 37,700	Extra over background	source
Extra myocarditis, males 16-24, 28 days after dose 2 (Pfizer) Second European study: 0.56 extra per 10,000 (95% CI 0.37-0.74).	0.0056%	about 1 in 17,900	Extra over background	source
Myocarditis, males 16-17, dose 2 (Pfizer), reported cases US VAERS reports per dose.	0.011%	about 1 in 9,440	Reporting rate	source
Heavy periods, extensive limb swelling, anaphylaxis Most heavy-period cases were short-lived.	not estimated not known	frequency not known	Product-info band	source
Guillain-Barré syndrome, Pfizer and Moderna	no increased risk found	–	Raw rate	source
Blood clots with low platelets (TTS), AstraZeneca (not used now), after first dose About 15 per million first doses (UK). Product information: very rare.	0.0015%	about 1 in 66,700	Reporting rate	source
Blood clots with low platelets (TTS), Johnson & Johnson (not used now) US, 54 cases in 14.1 million doses; 10.6 per million in women 30-39. Deaths: 0.6 per million doses.	0.00038%	about 1 in 261,000	Reporting rate	source
Guillain-Barré syndrome, AstraZeneca (not used now), first dose	0.00038%	about 1 in 263,000	Extra over background	source
Guillain-Barré syndrome, Johnson & Johnson (not used now) Confirmed cases per dose.	0.0019%	about 1 in 53,800	Raw rate	source
Shoulder injury from a jab given too high (bursitis, tendon, nerve or bone injury) National Academies 2024: causal when the needle goes into or next to the bursa, tendon, bone or nerve. They did not estimate a rate.	rate not published	–	No rate	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

See disease section.

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

No single case count: see the disease section for this guide's figures.

Chance of death if caught

COVID-19: England under-18s, Mar 2020-Feb 2021 (wild-type and Alpha variants): infection fatality rate about 5 per 100,000 infected (0.005%); 99.995% of those with a positive test survived. source
COVID-19: US: GAP - no case-fatality rate for children found in a primary source.

Confirmed serious reactions

Myocarditis, males 16-17, dose 2 of Pfizer mRNA vaccine (cases meeting the definition, within 7 days; NASEM 2024 found the link causal): 105.9 per million doses = about 1 in 9,400 (0.011%) source
Myocarditis, males 12-15, dose 2 of Pfizer mRNA vaccine: 70.7 per million doses = about 1 in 14,100 (0.0071%) source
Causality (NASEM 2024): mRNA vaccines and myocarditis: evidence 'establishes a causal relationship' source
Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS), Pfizer and Moderna mRNA (used in the UK and US): no increased risk found: 0.8 confirmed cases per million doses within 21 days, not different from the usual background rate (US Vaccine Safety Datalink, 14.6 million doses) source
GBS, Pfizer first dose (England, 12.1 million people): no association found within 28 days (rate ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.54-1.36) source
GBS, mRNA: UK guidance: UKHSA: GBS reports after Pfizer and after Moderna 'have not reached the number expected to occur by chance' source
GBS: NASEM 2024 review: Evidence 'favors rejection' of a causal link for Pfizer and for Moderna, and 'favors acceptance' for Johnson & Johnson. One Italian study (Morciano 2023) reported a small rise after Moderna, under 1 extra case per 100,000 doses, with wide uncertainty. source
GBS, AstraZeneca (Vaxzevria), first dose, England, age 16+: 38 extra cases per 10 million people within 28 days (Patone 2021) (0.00038% per first dose, about 1 in 263,000) source
GBS, AstraZeneca: UKHSA estimate: about 5.8 extra cases per million doses in the six weeks after the first dose (Keh 2023, cited in the Green Book) (0.00058% per first dose, about 1 in 172,000) source
GBS, AstraZeneca: regulators: MHRA (21 Oct 2021) and EMA (Sept 2021) list GBS as a 'very rare' side effect (EU category: fewer than 1 in 10,000) (under 0.01%) source
GBS, AstraZeneca: MHRA product information: GBS added as a very rare side effect source
GBS, Johnson & Johnson (Janssen), confirmed cases: 18.6 per million doses within 21 days (9 cases in 483,053 doses; usual background rate 1-2 per 100,000 people a year) (0.0019% per dose, about 1 in 53,800) source
GBS, Johnson & Johnson: CDC/ACIP July 2021: VAERS reports: 7.8 per million doses; medical-record-confirmed cases in the Vaccine Safety Datalink: 20.2 per million doses within 21 days (0.00078% per dose, about 1 in 128,000; 0.002% per dose, about 1 in 49,500) source
GBS, Johnson & Johnson: FDA July 2021: warning added to the fact sheets after 100 preliminary reports in about 12.5 million doses; FDA said the evidence suggested an association but was not enough to establish cause at that time source
Which brands are in use now: UK autumn 2026: Moderna (Spikevax) and HIPRA (Bimervax) for adults, Pfizer (Comirnaty) for children; AstraZeneca is not among them, and its EU authorisation was withdrawn at the company's request in March 2024. US: the Johnson & Johnson authorisation was revoked on 1 June 2023 at the company's request. source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate.

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

This vaccine: 5 of 12 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: myocarditis (above); long-term outcomes not quantified in the sources checked.

Disputed claims and what reviews found

Infertility, heart attack, Guillain-Barre, Bell's palsy (mRNA): NASEM 2024: evidence 'favors rejection' of a causal link. source

Hepatitis A US only (age 1)

The disease: Hepatitis A

Chance of catching it (per year)

0.0014%

UK about 1 in 69,500

0.00048%

US about 1 in 206,000

US: 0.00048% (about 1 in 206,000)

Chance of dying if you catch it

0.3–0.6%

about 1 in 333 to 1 in 167

The vaccine

Severe allergic reaction

0.00013%

about 1 in 763,000

Different bases: disease figures are per person per year across everyone; vaccine figures are per dose or per vaccinated child. Details and sources below.

Full figures and sources

The numbers above in full with years, bases and sources; guide's own conversion into % and "1 in X"

Hepatitis A Catching it (chance per person in one recent year, whole population vaccinated or not, unless stated): England & Wales 2024: 0.0014% (about 1 in 69,500) source; US 2023: 0.00048% (about 1 in 206,000) source | Dying from it (same basis unless stated): England & Wales: not published; US 2023: 0.000025% (about 1 in 4 million) source | Dying if caught: overall: 0.3% to 0.6% (about 1 in 333 to 1 in 167) source

vs the vaccine Anaphylaxis (severe allergic reaction), per dose, all vaccines: 0.00013% (about 1 in 763,000) source

All known reactions

Raw rate seen after vaccination; includes events that would have happened anyway
No rate cause accepted but no rate published

Reaction	Chance	About	Type of figure	Source
Babies 11-25 months: irritability	42%	about 4 in 10	Raw rate	source
Babies 11-25 months: pain at the injection site	32%	about 3 in 10	Raw rate	source
Babies 11-25 months: redness	29%	about 3 in 10	Raw rate	source
Babies 11-25 months: drowsiness, loss of appetite	28%	about 3 in 10	Raw rate	source
Children 2+: soreness at the injection site Less than 0.5% of soreness was severe.	21%	about 2 in 10	Raw rate	source
Children 2+: headache Under 9%.	9%	about 1 in 11	Raw rate	source
Fainting soon after the jab (mostly teenagers) CDC: injections can occasionally cause fainting; sitting for 15 minutes reduces falls.	rate not published	–	No rate	source
Severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis), all vaccines combined, per dose US study of 25 million doses; 33 cases.	0.00013%	about 1 in 763,000	Raw rate	source

Chance of catching it: before the vaccine

Hepatitis A: pre-vaccine vs 2021 US pre-vaccine estimate 117,333 cases/yr vs 11,500 (2021 estimate). source

Chance of catching it: recent year (crude, whole population)

Hepatitis A
- England and Wales 2024, acute: 889 cases; 1.44 per 100,000 people (1 in 69,500)
- US 2023, reported: 1,648 cases; 0.48 per 100,000 people (1 in 206,400)

Chance of death if caught

Hepatitis A: 0.3-0.6% overall; up to 1.8% in adults 50+. source

Confirmed serious reactions

Anaphylaxis (any vaccine): about 1 in 763,000 doses (0.00013%) source

Confirmed deaths caused by the vaccine

No official per-dose death rate.

Reported deaths within about 72 hours (unverified)

This vaccine: 36 of 73 VAERS death reports (age 0-2) had onset within about 72 hours

VAERS reports, not confirmed causes. source

Recognised long-term effects

Recognised: none with an official rate.

Disputed claims and what reviews found

None listed in the sources checked.

Gaps: no official per-dose death rate exists for any routine vaccine in the sources checked; the guide does not create one from VAERS. MenB: no vaccine-specific serious-reaction rate found. Reported 72-hour deaths are counted by vaccine mentioned, so one report naming several vaccines appears in several rows.

SIDS and vaccine timing

SIDS (sudden infant death syndrome) is the sudden death of a baby under 1 that stays unexplained after a full investigation. Babies get several vaccines in the same months that SIDS is most common, so the question is whether deaths after vaccination are more common than they would be by chance. This section shows the trend, the ages, the reported timing, where the "70%" figure comes from, and the research on both sides.

US: sudden unexpected infant deaths per 100,000 births, 1990-2024

1990154.6

1991153.1

1992143.1 AAP: babies on back

1993142.4

1994125.9 Back to Sleep campaign

1995113.1

1996101.4 new death-scene form

199799.2

199894.5

199993.9

200094.4

200194.6

200294.5

200389.7

200492.4

200597.5

200693.0

200797.5

200899.0

200997.1

201090.3

201186.1

201287.6

201387.3

201487.5

201592.6

201691.4

201793.4

201890.9

201990.1

202092.9

202199.2

2022100.9

202398.7

202493.6

SIDS unknown cause accidental suffocation or strangulation in bed. Total shown on the right.

CDC reports these rates source: in 1990, 130.3 SIDS deaths per 100,000 births and 154.6 for all three causes; in 2024, 37.2 and 93.6. CDC reports that "Sharp declines in SUID in the 1990s followed" the 1992 American Academy of Pediatrics safe-sleep advice, the 1994 Back to Sleep campaign and the 1996 death-investigation form, and that "Beginning in 2020, the SUID rate has been increasing" source. Guide's reading of the same CDC figures: from 1990 to 2024 the SIDS rate fell from 130.3 to 37.2 per 100,000 births while unknown-cause deaths rose from 20.9 to 30.3 and suffocation in bed from 3.4 to 26.1. So part of the fall in SIDS is deaths being recorded under other causes; the total of all three is the fairer comparison over time.

England and Wales: unexplained infant deaths, 2004-2024

2004317 (207 SIDS)

2005325 (223 SIDS)

2006285 (184 SIDS)

2007273 (198 SIDS)

2008287 (186 SIDS)

2009283 (187 SIDS)

2010261 (161 SIDS)

2011247 (169 SIDS)

2012234 (163 SIDS)

2013252 (165 SIDS)

2014217 (130 SIDS)

2015195 (119 SIDS)

2016226 (117 SIDS)

2017189 (110 SIDS)

2018213 (114 SIDS)

2019187 (103 SIDS)

2020162 (80 SIDS)

2021189 (117 SIDS)

2022187 (95 SIDS)

2023194 (93 SIDS)

2024p183 (107 SIDS)

sudden infant death (SIDS) unascertained cause. Number of deaths; 2024 provisional. source

Age at death (England and Wales, 2004-2024 combined)

Under 28 days489 (16%)

28 days to under 2 months829 (27%)

2 to under 3 months596 (20%)

3 to under 4 months366 (12%)

4 to under 5 months236 (8%)

5 to under 6 months170 (6%)

6 to under 12 months342 (11%)

ONS reports 3,028 sudden infant deaths in these years by age source. Guide's own arithmetic: 44% happened before 2 months, the age of the first UK vaccines (8 weeks), so they could not have followed a routine vaccine (other than a selective hepatitis B or BCG dose).

VAERS: days from vaccination to death, babies under 1 reported cases only

Days after vaccination	Death reports	Share of reports with a known day	Cumulative share
Day 0 (same day)	276	13.0%	13.0% within 24 hours (day 0)
Day 1	589	27.8%	40.9% by day 1 (about 48 hours)
Day 2	279	13.2%	54.1% by day 2 (about 72 hours)
Day 3	180	8.5%	62.6% by day 3
Days 4-7	328	15.5%	78.1% by day 7
Day 8 or later	463	21.9%	-

Guide's own arithmetic from CDC WONDER: 2,372 death reports for babies under 1 (all years to Sept 2026, all vaccines); 2,115 had a known onset day, 257 did not. Percentages are of the 2,115 with a known day. source

Reported cases only. These are deaths someone chose to report to VAERS because they followed a vaccine. Deaths soon after a vaccine are more likely to be reported (see the VAERS caveat above). They are not a share of all SIDS deaths. "Days after" is the interval from vaccination to the reported event.

Where the "70%" figure comes from

No study found by this guide measured what share of all SIDS deaths happen within 24-72 hours of a vaccine. The figures in circulation come from collections of cases already linked to vaccination:

Torch 1982 (conference abstract): 70% of the SIDS cases studied died within 3 weeks of DTP; 13% within 24 hours and 26% within 3 days source.
Torch 1986: from published case reports of deaths after DTP, about 50% within 24 hours and 75% within 72 hours source.
Miller 2021 (VAERS reports): 58% of infant death reports within 3 days, 78.3% within 7 days; for SIDS reports, 51% and 75.5% source. The journal removed the paper in April 2026 removal notice; the author disputes this author's correspondence.
This guide's VAERS count above: 54% of reports with a known day were within about 72 hours and 78% within a week.

All four count only deaths that were reported or collected after a vaccine. For comparison, a 1985 estimate cited by the IOM put the number of US SIDS deaths expected within 24 hours of DTP by chance, at that time, at about 55 a year source.

How researchers test it: the self-controlled method

Instead of comparing different babies, a self-controlled study compares each baby with itself. For babies who died, it asks: did the death fall in the days just after a vaccine more often than in other days of the same baby's life at a similar age? If vaccines had no effect, deaths would be spread evenly over those days. Because the same baby is compared with itself, family, sleeping position and health are the same on both sides. Its weak point is age: SIDS rises and falls by week of age, so studies must adjust for it. See Definitions.

What the research found

Research reporting a link or timing cluster

Torch 1982 (abstract only, cited by IOM 1991): Of SIDS cases studied, 13% died within 24 hours of DTP, 26% within 3 days, 37% within a week, 70% within 3 weeks. No comparison group. source
Torch 1986 (abstract only, cited by IOM 1991): Summary of 150+ published case reports of deaths after DTP: about 50% within 24 hours, 75% within 72 hours, 90% within a week. The cases were collected because they followed vaccination. source
Baraff 1983, Pediatric Infectious Disease (Los Angeles): Of 53 SIDS victims who had received DTP, 6 died within 24 hours and 17 within a week of it, which the authors call 'significantly more than expected'. They found the same pattern after doctor visits without DTP: 22 of 46 such infants died within a week of the visit. source
Walker 1987, AJPH: SIDS rate 0-3 days after DTP was 7.3 times the rate from day 30 on (95% CI 1.7-31); the same study found unvaccinated infants had 6.5 times the rate of vaccinated infants. The authors said only a small share of SIDS could be associated with DTP. source
Traversa 2011, PLoS One (Italy, self-controlled, about 3 million infants): Within 2 days of a 6-in-1 vaccine: 4 deaths, relative risk 1.5 (95% CI 0.6-4.2, not statistically significant). Within 7 days: relative risk 2.0 (1.2-3.5), limited to the first dose (2.2). The authors say these risks were much lower than earlier German estimates and that leftover effects of age may explain part of the first-dose increase. source
Miller and Goldman 2011, Hum Exp Toxicol: Among highly developed nations, infant mortality correlated with the number of vaccine doses in the schedule (r = 0.70). Country-level (ecological) data, which cannot show cause in individual babies. Critics' reanalysis of 185 countries found a much weaker correlation (r = 0.16); the authors' 2023 reply defends the original finding. source
Miller 2021, Toxicology Reports (removed April 2026): Of VAERS reports of SIDS, 51% within 3 days and 75.5% within 7 days of vaccination. VAERS reports only. The journal removed it for 'serious methodological flaws'; the author disputes this. source

Research not finding a link

Griffin 1988, NEJM (Tennessee Medicaid): Compared with day 31 on, SIDS risk was lower, not higher, 0-3 days after DTP (relative risk 0.18) and 4-7 days after (0.17); no increase overall. source
Hoffman 1987, Pediatrics (NICHD study, 757 SIDS cases): No temporal association between DTP and SIDS was found; babies who died of SIDS were less likely to have had any DTP (39.8%) than matched living babies (55.0% and 53.2%). source
Vennemann 2007, Vaccine (German case-control): No increased SIDS risk in the 14 days after immunisation. source
Vennemann 2007, Vaccine (meta-analysis of 9 studies): Vaccinated infants had about half the SIDS risk (odds ratio 0.54); the authors say a 'healthy vaccinee effect' may explain part of this. source
TOKEN study (Germany, Robert Koch Institute): Self-controlled analysis: risk in the 3 days after the 6-in-1 vaccine was not significantly raised (relative risk 1.54, 95% CI 0.67-3.54); within a week 0.59. The authors say self-selection probably made the risk look higher than it is. source
IOM 1991 and IOM 2003 reviews: 1991: evidence 'does not indicate a causal relation' between DPT and SIDS. 2003: evidence 'favors rejection' of a causal link for whole-cell DTP and for multiple vaccines; inadequate to decide for DTaP alone. source
Moro 2015, Clin Infect Dis (CDC review of VAERS death reports, 1997-2013): Of 1,244 child death reports with a death certificate or autopsy, 544 (44%) were SIDS. The authors: 'No concerning pattern was noted', and the causes of death 'were consistent with the most common causes of death in the US population'. source

GAP: CDC WONDER's death-certificate data could not be queried by this guide (access refused), so US SIDS deaths by age in weeks are not shown.